A Systronomic Framework: Integrating Hierarchical Systems for Early-Warning of Socio-Economic

Author(s)	Mr. Mandeep Singh
Country	India
Abstract	Conventional economic models struggle to predict systemic socio-economic crises, often due to their neglect of foundational ecological and social stressors. This study introduces the Systronomic Framework, a 15-layer hierarchical model that integrates ecological, economic, social, and digital systems into a unified early-warning system. Building upon principles of hierarchical complexity, the framework is operationalised through a reformulated Sovereign Stability Index (SSI). Historical back testing across 28 major crisis episodes from 1997 to 2025 demonstrates the model’s predictive utility, with an accuracy of 88.3% and an average lead time of 8.3 months. A key finding is that ecological stress at the base layer consistently precedes economic and social instability by several years. The paper concludes by outlining a pathway for integrating this framework into the policy toolkit of international financial institutions, offering a more holistic approach to systemic risk assessment.
Keywords	Systronomic Framework, Hierarchical Flux Theory, Sovereign Stability Index, Early-Warning System, Civilization Collapse, Ecological-Economic Integration, Predictive Analytics, And Econometrics.
Discipline	Sociology > Data / Information / Statistics
Published In	Volume 4, Issue 1, January-February 2026
Published On	2026-02-09

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Advanced International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research