Simulating Future Urban Growth in Telangana's Secondary Cities: A CA-Markov and Machine Learning Approach Integrating Transport Corridor Influence (2024–2050)

N. Srinivasu

doi:10.62127/aijmr.2023.v01i01.1573

Simulating Future Urban Growth in Telangana's Secondary Cities: A CA-Markov and Machine Learning Approach Integrating Transport Corridor Influence (2024–2050)

Author(s)	Dr. N. Srinivasu
Country	India
Abstract	Rapid urbanisation is reshaping Telangana's secondary cities, yet projections of their future form are scarce and seldom consider how transport corridors steer land conversion. This study simulates built-up expansion in Warangal, Karimnagar, Nizamabad and Khammam from 2024 to 2050 by coupling a random forest suitability model with a cellular automaton–Markov (CA-Markov) allocation procedure under three infrastructure scenarios. Land use maps for 2000, 2010 and 2020 were classified from Landsat imagery (overall accuracy 89.4–93.1 per cent). Combined built-up area rose from 107.2 to 262.1 km², a compound annual growth of 4.57 per cent, mostly at the expense of cropland. Thirteen spatial drivers were used to train the suitability model; the three transport-corridor variables jointly contributed 31.1 per cent of predictor importance. Validation against the observed 2020 map gave a kappa of 0.88 and a figure of merit of 25.7 per cent, outperforming a conventional CA-Markov baseline. Three scenarios project built-up area of 497.8 to 674.3 km² by 2050, with 24 to 44 per cent of new growth falling within one kilometre of major highways. The findings identify corridor investment as the main lever shaping urban form and support corridor-sensitive planning that protects irrigated cropland, tanks and other water bodies.
Keywords	urban growth simulation; CA-Markov; random forest; transport corridors; secondary cities; Telangana; land use change.
Discipline	Other
Published In	Volume 1, Issue 1, July-August 2023
Published On	2023-07-08
DOI	https://doi.org/10.62127/aijmr.2023.v01i01.1573

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Simulating Future Urban Growth in Telangana's Secondary Cities: A CA-Markov and Machine Learning Approach Integrating Transport Corridor Influence (2024–2050)

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